3
Aurora Borealis
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Deauville · Prix du Quai de Saint-Etienne - World Pool by PMU Handicap · 7f 100y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Deauville | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Compiegne | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Deauville | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 85% | -0.07 |
| 19/08/2025 | 13th | 9/2 | 76% | 8% | -0.69 |
| 30/08/2025 | 13th | 17/2 | 55% | 8% | -0.48 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 02/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |