4
Autumn Twilight
8yo Horse · 9-3
Deauville · Prix du Quai de la Quarantaine - World Pool by PMU Handicap · 7f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 16
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 12th | 6/1 | 68% | 8% | -0.60 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 31/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 85% | -0.06 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 77% | +0.35 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 29/05/2026 | 12th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 18/06/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |