4
Snappy Comeback
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 97
Del Mar · Race 6 - Allowance · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2025-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |