3
Essos
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 99
Del Mar · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 30/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 26/01/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |