9
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5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 65
Del Mar · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2024-12-15 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2024-09-05 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-02-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-01-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2023 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/01/2024 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/02/2024 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 05/09/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 24/11/2024 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/12/2024 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 27/07/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |