Marian Cross
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 99
Del Mar · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |