9
Flying Mohawk
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 108
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength22%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 03/05/2025 | 18th | 33/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 22/11/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |