11
Giocoso
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 106
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 03/05/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.19 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |