13
Herchee
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 113
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2024 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 27/07/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/09/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 23/11/2024 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |