5
Lambeth
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 108
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/03/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 30/04/2025 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 14/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 25/10/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |