12
Mercante
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 114
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |