6
Native Runner
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 105
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA104 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | BHA101 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 18/03/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |