4
Quatrocento
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 117
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |