7
Tapit Shoes
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 108
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 08/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 14/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |