8
Vote No
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 110
Ellis Park · Race 10 - Green River Island S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |