7
Balaclava
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 95
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |