3
Colonial Rose
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 88
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |