1
Crimsonite
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 21/12/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 26/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |