5
Queen Of Capri
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |