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4

Rando

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 85

Ellis Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Churchill Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 89 · 1m 118 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 89 par11/09C7OR 89C8 @ Churchill Downs 29/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 86 · 1m 118 · below its mark29/10/2025 · OR 86 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 13/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 81 par13/11C8OR 81C8 @ Oaklawn Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 1m110y 118 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Oaklawn Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 6f 122 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 88 par12/04C7OR 88C6 @ Oaklawn Park 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f 123 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 90 par22/05C7OR 90C7 @ Churchill Downs 24/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Ellis Park 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 85 · 1m 126 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 85 par12/07C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Ellis Park?4th4th0
2026-06-24Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-05-22Churchill Downs?5th7th−2
2026-04-30Oaklawn Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-12Oaklawn Park?2nd4th−2
2026-03-13Oaklawn Park?2nd5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0913/0322/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength48%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20257th14/126%25%-0.01
29/10/20258th9/153%36%-0.16
13/11/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
13/03/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
12/04/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
30/04/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22
22/05/20265th6/492%33%-0.59
24/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
12/07/20264th9/153%40%-0.13