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5

Bohemian

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 101

Ellis Park · Race 6 - Pucker Up S. Presented By Ag Revolution · 1m 1f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 20/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 77 par20/09C6OR 77C6 @ Keeneland 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m1f Fm 119 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 62 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 14/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 66 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 66 par14/11C6OR 66C6 @ Fair Grounds 03/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Sam Houston Race Park 24/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 89 · 1m Yie 114 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 89 par24/01C5OR 89C5 @ Fair Grounds 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 86 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 90 par1/05C?OR 90C6 @ Churchill Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 116 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 95 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m Gd 118 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 95 par27/06C5OR 95projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-05Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?10th10th0
2026-03-07Fair Grounds?3rd3rd0
2026-01-24Sam Houston Race Park?2nd2nd0
2026-01-03Fair Grounds?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/093/011/0527/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202511th1/195%9%-0.86
24/10/20254th11/271%73%+0.02
14/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
03/01/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
24/01/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19
07/03/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
01/05/202610th40/10%25%+0.25
05/06/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
27/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19