3
One Sweet Girl
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 92
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Pucker Up S. Presented By Ag Revolution · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | BHA78 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |