2
Turner's Charm
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 101
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Pucker Up S. Presented By Ag Revolution · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |