3
Aguila Negra
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 18/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |