8
Black Hornet
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 93
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 21/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |