2
Blackmail
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 101
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |