6
Brave Force
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 95
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | BHA93 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |