1
Fancy Sailor
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 105
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |