4
Knick's Honor
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 96
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 31/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 14/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |