7
Royal Causeway
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 101
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Water Tower S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |