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4

Cinister Cix

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 96

Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength2%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 17/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m 120 · below its mark17/09/2025 · OR 78 par17/09C9OR 78C9 @ Keeneland 23/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 76 · 1m110y 120 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 76 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 26/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 122 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 80 par26/11C9OR 80C6 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 6f 122 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Turfway Park 17/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 6f 122 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 88 par17/01C6OR 88C6 @ Turfway Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 125 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Turfway Park 08/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 92 · 6f 122 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 92 par8/03C5OR 92C5 @ Keeneland 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 97 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 92 par9/05C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09Churchill Downs?4th5th−1
2026-04-11Keeneland?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-08Turfway Park?3rd3rd0
2026-02-14Turfway Park?1st3rd−2
2026-01-17Turfway Park?2nd4th−2
2025-12-21Turfway Park?4th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0921/128/039/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20254th7/163%73%+0.10
23/10/20253rd40/10%78%+0.78
26/11/20255th20/10%60%+0.60
21/12/20254th12/137%67%+0.30
17/01/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
14/02/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
08/03/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
11/04/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86
09/05/20264th12/137%70%+0.33