8
Eakly
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2024 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 27/06/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |