Golden Afternoon
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 101
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 6th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 01/03/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 07/04/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 03/05/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |