3
Joe Shiesty
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 115
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/08/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |