1
Let My People Go
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 16/03/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 04/06/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 56% | -0.36 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |