Mondogetsbuckets
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 111
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 21/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |