12
Okiro
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 104
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 23/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |