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11

Troubleshooting

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 110

Ellis Park · Race 8 - Tri-state Turf Sprint Stakes · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

76%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 16/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark16/05/2025 · OR 90 par16/05C5OR 90C5 @ Churchill Downs 11/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 96 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark11/06/2025 · OR 96 parC5 @ Ellis Park 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 107 · 5f110y Fm 118 · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 107 par4/07C5OR 107C5 @ Ellis Park 04/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 120 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 108 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 108 · 6f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 108 par6/09C?OR 108C1 @ Keeneland 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 113 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 113 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 22/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 107 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 107 par22/11C1OR 107C5 @ Keeneland 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 108 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 107 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 107 par6/06C5OR 107projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-04-18Keeneland?2nd3rd−1
2025-11-22Churchill Downs?9th4th+4
2025-10-25Keeneland?1st-4th+4
2025-09-06Kentucky Downs?1st-4th+4
2025-08-04Ellis Park?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/054/0822/116/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20252nd10/382%91%+0.08
11/06/20254th3/184%73%-0.11
04/07/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
04/08/20252nd9/488%83%-0.05
06/09/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
25/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
22/11/20259th10/382%11%-0.71
18/04/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
06/06/20263rd11/893%67%-0.26