1
Bourbon Memory
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 88
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Sunkissed S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/03/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/05/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 15/03/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |