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12

In The Stars

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 104

Ellis Park · Race 9 - Sunkissed S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 06/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m110y Slo 120 · beat its mark06/04/2025 · OR 67 par6/04C6OR 67C6 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 76 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 76 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 29/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 85 par29/06C6OR 85C6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 83 · 1m 120 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 83 parC5 @ Keeneland 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 88 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 88 par3/10C5OR 88C0 @ Churchill Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 95 parC5 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 102 par10/04C5OR 102C1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 12411/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-05-30Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-04-10Keeneland?1st1st0
2025-11-28Churchill Downs?7th7th0
2025-10-03Keeneland?1st1st0
2025-08-30Kentucky Downs?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0430/0810/0411/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20256th33/10%44%+0.44
10/05/20252nd13/266%91%+0.25
29/06/20255th13/266%33%-0.32
30/08/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
03/10/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
28/11/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
10/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
30/05/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
11/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16