6
Smiling Ellie
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 102
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Sunkissed S. Presented By Sterling Industrial · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 19/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |