1
Lucrece De Corday
5yo Filly · 0-0
Enghien · Prix De Forges-les-eaux - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Enghien | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-11 | Laval | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Laval | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-16 | Enghien | 5 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.83 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |