IvyArcIvyArc
14

Coolboy Christy

5yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 97

Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y

#15

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest maiden hurdler who ran up to best returned to this sphere in first-time cheekpieces when ¾ lengths fifth of 14 to Ocean Murphy at Wexford 10 days ago. Wears first-time blinkers now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 2m1f89y Gd 15422/07C8C8 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 161C8 @ Fairyhouse 15/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 2m Sft 15815/01C8C8 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 99 · 2m2f72y Sft 156 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 99 parBHA101 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 101 · 2m1f165y Yie 157 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 101 par29/03101OR 101BHA100 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 100 · 2m3f50y Goo 156 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 100 parC0 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m3f100y Goo 16622/05C?C0 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m7f150y Gd 166BHA98 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m4f Gd 156 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 98 par23/0798OR 98projClass-projected finish: 8th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23WexfordBHA985th5th0
2026-06-13Downpatrick?4th4th0
2026-05-22Downpatrick?8th8th0
2026-05-10CorkBHA1004th4th0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA1015th5th0
2026-03-02Leopardstown?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/072/0322/0523/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20258th33/10%42%+0.42
15/12/202513th125/10%37%+0.37
15/01/20266th100/10%67%+0.67
02/03/20264th12/137%82%+0.46
29/03/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
10/05/20264th14/126%79%+0.52
22/05/20268th10/147%46%-0.01
13/06/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
23/07/20265th11/142%69%+0.27