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18

Dream Shaper

7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 91

Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y

#13

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Allowed to establish a huge lead when finally getting off the mark in 16-runner handicap at Kilbeggan 9 days ago by 11 lengths from Barrogstown Girl. Circumstances unlikely to be so favourable here, though, and races from 3 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA99 @ Ballinrobe 27/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 99 · 2m57y Gd 160 · below its mark27/05/2025 · OR 99 par27/0599OR 99BHA98 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 98 · 2m1f89y Gd 157 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 98 parBHA95 @ Sligo 07/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 95 · 2m1f193y Goo 163 · below its mark07/08/2025 · OR 95 par7/0895OR 95BHA94 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 94 · 2m6f97y Goo 164 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 94 parBHA91 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 91 · 2m4f40y Sft 147 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 91 par3/1091OR 91BHA88 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 88 · 2m4f Goo 156 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 88 parBHA84 @ Limerick 22/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 84 · 2m50y Sft 144 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 84 par22/0384OR 84BHA81 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 81 · 2m4f116y Gd 149 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 81 parBHA82 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 82 · 2m2f200y Gd 150 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 82 par24/0782OR 82projClass-projected finish: 4th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA821st1st0
2026-07-12SligoBHA813rd3rd0
2026-03-22LimerickBHA849th9th0
2025-12-07Cork?0
2025-10-14PunchestownBHA8817th17th0
2025-10-03Gowran ParkBHA917th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/058/0922/0324/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20256th20/10%64%+0.64
22/07/20258th18/15%50%+0.45
07/08/20257th25/10%54%+0.54
08/09/202512th10/147%35%-0.12
03/10/20257th40/10%25%+0.25
14/10/202517th50/10%16%+0.16
22/03/20269th33/10%33%+0.33
12/07/20263rd25/10%86%+0.86
24/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58