15
Imperial Miss
5yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 96
Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y
#17
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Navan | BHA98 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Thurles | BHA99 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Downpatrick | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Tipperary | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Downpatrick | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 20/12/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 69% | +0.06 |
| 17/01/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 15/06/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 03/07/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 30/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 14/12/2025 | 18th | 50/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |