11
Mo Ghille Mar
5yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 105
Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y
#10
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA88 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA106 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA107 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA100 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA102 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Warwick | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 25/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 12/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 31/07/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |