2
My Trump Card
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 120
Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y
#14
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA121 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Punchestown | BHA124 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | BHA125 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | BHA127 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Navan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Haydock | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/12/2024 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 53% | -0.21 |
| 18/01/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 15/02/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 16/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 06/12/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |