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12

Penzance

6yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 105

Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful at his best on the Flat. Hasn't reached the same level over hurdles but has finished in the frame on all 5 starts, finding only a single rival too good on his last 3, though bit below earlier efforts when chasing home Without Burlington at Worcester on latest. Handicap hurdle debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m2f Std 131 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 86 par12/033OR 863 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 86 · 1m142y Std 126 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 85 · 1m2f Std 132 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 85 par3/043OR 854 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m4f Std 137 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 82 par31/054OR 824 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m2f148y Goo 1574 @ Stratford 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m2f148y Goo 15830/0644 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 105 · 2m70y GF 158 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 105 par4 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 105 · 2m Gd 158 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 105 par22/074OR 105projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Worcester42nd2nd0
2026-07-12Stratford42nd2nd0
2026-06-30Stratford42nd2nd0
2026-06-16Stratford44th4th0
2026-05-31Thirsk47th7th0
2026-05-12Lingfield42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0312/0530/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
20/03/202612th25/10%0%0.00
03/04/202611th22/10%23%+0.23
12/05/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
31/05/20267th20/10%45%+0.45
16/06/20264th20/10%67%+0.67
30/06/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
12/07/20262nd7/491%75%-0.16
22/07/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07