IvyArcIvyArc
5

Playtime

5yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 117

Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y

#5

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful handicapper on Flat who has showed similar form over hurdles, landing a Leopardstown maiden (2m) in March. Largely remained in good form since, looking unlucky not to finish closer when 7¾ lengths third of 6 to Gangster Granny in novice hurdle at Downpatrick last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 11/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR - · 2m122y Sft 16611/01C8C8 @ Thurles 05/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR - · 2m34y Sft 166C8 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 115 · 2m Sft 166 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 115 par2/03C8OR 1151 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 124 · 2m Yie 141 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 124 parBHA122 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 122 · 2m1f Goo 152 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 122 par9/05122OR 122BHA120 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 120 · 2m Goo 166 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 120 parC8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 119 · 2m100y Goo 166 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 119 par6/06C8OR 119BHA119 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 119 · 2m1f40y Gd 158 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 119 parC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 118 · 2m5f185y Gd 166 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 118 par14/07C8OR 118projClass-projected finish: 7th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Downpatrick?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA1197th7th0
2026-06-06Punchestown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-29TramoreBHA1203rd3rd0
2026-05-09KillarneyBHA1226th6th0
2026-04-04Fairyhouse111th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/014/046/0614/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 17
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/01/20269th12/137%58%+0.21
05/02/20263rd28/10%88%+0.88
02/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
04/04/202611th22/10%41%+0.41
09/05/20266th5/174%44%-0.29
29/05/20263rd4/179%60%-0.19
06/06/20262nd11/142%75%+0.33
04/07/20267th12/137%60%+0.23
14/07/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29