16
Space Warrior
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 93
Galway · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m 160y
#16
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA94 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | BHA94 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | BHA64 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA96 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 05/10/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 87% | +0.29 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |